Tianbang shares (002124) 2019 third quarterly report review-stable breeding sows can gradually increase profits

Tianbang shares (002124) 2019 third quarterly report review-stable breeding sows can gradually increase profits

Under the non-plague situation, the industry’s 深圳桑拿网 production capacity has exceeded 40%, and the production capacity has continued, and pig prices have continued to exceed expectations.

The company’s sows recovered steadily, the number of slaughters increased rapidly, and the profit elasticity was huge.

Taking into account the higher-than-expected pig price, we raise the company’s profit forecast to zero.

55/4.

46/2.

09 yuan (originally expected to be 0 in 19/20/21 EPS.

44/1.

49/1.

69 yuan), the current market value is expected to correspond to the average market value of only 3,000 yuan in 20 years, maintain the “buy” rating.

Benefiting from the new high pig prices, Q2 pig business achieved profit.

The company achieved a profit of 11.94 million in the first three quarters, -90 for the whole year.

12%, net profit 3 in the third quarter alone.

7.9 billion, previously + 841%, close to the previous upper limit of performance indicators.

The big increase in profit in Q3 was mainly due to: 1) Pig prices hit a record high.

In March 2019, the national average hog sales price was 23.

84 yuan / kg, ten years + 78%.

The company produced 50 pigs in the third quarter.

960,000 piglets, with piglets accounting for 25% -35%, with an average profit of 390 yuan per head.

2) Driven by investment income.

The report summarizes that the company concentrated resources, focused on its main business, and sold Guangdong Haimao Investment Co., Ltd.27.

295% equity is expected to generate a net profit after tax of approximately 1.

6.4 billion.

Productive biological assets also increased, and escorts will be released next year.

With the improvement of the company’s biosafety prevention and control level and the increase in breeding, the company’s sow throughput has steadily increased.

Third quarterly report of the company’s productive biological assets 6.

1.9 billion, an increase of 63% from the previous month, and an increase of 17% from the same period. It is estimated that it can grow about 160,000 heads and gradually increase to about 200,000 heads, which effectively supports the high growth of the next year.

The pig price continued to exceed expectations, and the profit elasticity was accelerated.

In the latest September live pig inventory data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the sow inventory can be multiplied by position 2.

8%, 38 per year.

9%, the pig inventory will be extended by 3% month-on-month, and 41 each year.

1%, production capacity is still continuing.

As of October 17, 2019, the average national pig price was 35.

13 yuan / kg, up 154 before.

75%, pig prices are expected to continue to rise in the fourth quarter.

Enterprises with sufficient sow resources and excellent prevention and control capabilities will obviously benefit, and profit elasticity will promote accelerated release.

Risk factors: The epidemic has spread widely, breeding costs have increased, and pig prices have risen less than expected.

Investment advice: Under the 杭州夜网论坛 non-plague situation, the industry’s production capacity has exceeded 40%, and the production capacity is still continuing, and the pig price continues to exceed expectations.

The number of sows that can be bred by the company has increased steadily, the number of slaughters has increased rapidly, and the profit flexibility is huge.Taking into account the higher-than-expected pig price, we raise the company’s profit forecast to zero.

55/4.

46/2.

09 yuan (originally expected to be 0 in 19/20/21 EPS.

44/1.

49/1.

69 yuan), the current market value is expected to correspond to the average market value of only 3,000 yuan in 20 years, maintain the “buy” rating