Is A share a global safe haven?

Is A share a global “safe haven”?
On March 9, global capital markets staged “Black Monday”.The Asia-Pacific stock market is in turmoil, and the European and American stock markets are miserable.In particular, the US stock market triggered a blowout only four minutes after opening on Monday, and it was also the second time that a US stock market triggered a blowout since October 27, 1997.The final closing, the average decline of the three major US stock indexes exceeded 7%, which is also very rare in the history of the US capital market.On March 9, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.01%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.05%.But today the A-share index closed up across the board. The Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index closed up by more than 2.6%.There are 3,141 stocks in the two cities, with 22 stocks in daily limit and 138 stocks in daily limit.A recent research report released by Morgan Stanley, a well-known investment bank, believes that the Chinese stock market will become a “safe-haven asset” under the new crown virus, which will increase the weight of China’s stock allocation, and the Chinese stock market rating will also be replaced by “unchanged” value-added holdings.”.U.S. stocks have plummeted and the oil price war has begun. Will A shares really become a global “safe haven”?[Square]A-share Mavericks will not follow the decline of US stocks. The plunge of US stocks casts a shadow over A-share investors. Investors worry that A-shares will also follow US stocks and plunge.However, the performance of A-shares was strong on March 10th. Although the A-share index showed a volatile trend in early trading, the intraday decline was relatively small, and the A-share index closed up across the board.A-shares refused to follow the plunge of US stocks, which is actually an expected thing. After all, the prospects faced by A-shares are very different from those of US stocks.There are three main reasons why US stocks plummeted.The first is the spread of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic worldwide, which has caused panic among American investors.Recently, the epidemic has been better controlled to some extent, but it has spread rapidly abroad. South Korea, Iran, and Italy have become the hardest hit areas.The epidemic situation in Italy has expanded to many European countries, France, Germany, Spain and Spain.As far as the continental United States is concerned, the number of confirmed cases every day in recent days may increase by hundreds of digits.It is especially important that the number of cases in the United States has increased or the number of people tested has decreased, the speed of detection has decreased, and the data is even the result of the “uniform caliber” report. How the real situation cannot be determined.And the US government’s awareness of the prevention and control of the epidemic is weak, and even advises the public not to wear masks or buy masks.Including the President of the United States, he still believed this way: “Last year 3.70,000 Americans die from the common cold, an average of 2 each year.70,000 to 70,000 people (infected), nothing is closed, life and economy continue.At this moment, there were 546 confirmed cases of New Coronavirus and 22 deaths.think about it!”In fact, the US government’s attitude towards the epidemic is more terrifying than the new coronary pneumonia itself.This inaction has itself exacerbated the panic among American investors about the epidemic.This is the primary reason for the recent plunge in the US stock market.The price, the collapse of US stocks on March 9, was also related to the collapse of international crude oil prices earlier that day.As Saudi Arabia and Russia reduced the resulting crude oil collapse, Saudi Arabia significantly lowered the price of oil to sell off. The crude oil sold to Western Europe was reduced by US $ 8 per barrel, and the crude oil sold to the United States will be reduced by about US $ 7 per barrel in 4 months.The price of oil fell by 4-6 US dollars per barrel.The decline in international oil prices has caused chaos in the international financial market in the short term and triggered panic in the market.For American energy companies, this constitutes a direct impact.Third, the US stock market has experienced a bull market for nearly 11 years. The exchange between the bull market and the bear market is an inevitable. Therefore, when the US stocks plunge, investors will naturally panic and want to flee. After all, who is the investor?He is also unwilling to put himself in a high position.It is this fear of the arrival of a bear market that has exacerbated the plunge in US stocks.But the reason for the sharp decline in US stocks does not exist for the A-share market.First of all, in terms of the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic on the market, the A-share market has passed the period of fear.As of February 3, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 229.92 points, a drop of up to 7.72%, this decline is not inferior to the Dow on March 9th.It can be said that the A-share has experienced a period of panic.And from the perspective of prevention and control of New Coronary Pneumonia, under the great attention of governments of various countries, the transformed epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, and the Chinese are no longer panicking.From the perspective of the decline in international crude oil prices, it is actually a “benefit” for some.Because crude oil is a major importer of crude oil, the external dependence of crude oil is as high as 72%. Therefore, the collapse of crude oil prices can save the cost of crude oil imports. This is a good thing.Moreover, the oil price in the domestic market is generally stable and has the resistance to overcoming the fall, which has little impact on the three major oil giants.Therefore, the plunge in international oil prices does not have much impact on A shares.In addition, whether the US stocks are bullish to bearish is not a concern for the A-share market.The US has gone through a bull market for 11 years. A-shares have not been bullish. A-shares have been in the process of adjustment, and the index has been in the mid-hill position.Therefore, U.S. stocks should worry about falling from a height, but A-shares need not have such worries.Just like this morning’s A-share market, after some shocks, the stock indexes of both Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks turned red when the market closed in early trading. This is the maverick A-share market.A shares go their own way, let US stocks fall!Pi Haizhou (financial commentator) editor Chen Li proofreads Li Shihui[counterparty]The “safe haven” in which overseas markets plunge A shares into global assets is difficult. Compared with the plunge in overseas markets, the performance of stocks has decreased significantly on Monday.The Shanghai index fell by 3.01%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.05%, the decline is smaller than the overseas market, and closed up across the board today.Due to the poor performance of the overseas market in recent times, and the performance of the A-share rat since the year, the well-known investment bank Morgan Stanley recently released a research report that the Chinese stock market will become a “safe haven” under the new coronavirus.”Assets” will increase the weight of China’s stock allocation, and the rating of the Chinese stock market will also be changed from “unchanged” to “overweight”.Morgan Stanley ‘s report is certainly very encouraging, but can A shares really become a “safe haven” for global assets?The current A-share market is not high by estimation.Take the closing of Monday as an example.The average Shanghai market surplus was 14.38 times, the Shenzhen market is 27.68 times, it is actually high blood pressure.From the perspective of monetary policy, the continuous release of liquidity this year will have a direct supporting effect on the stability of A shares.In addition, this year will be the year of the new infrastructure.As of March 1, 13 provinces and cities, including Beijing, have announced investment plans for key projects of nearly 34 trillion yuan.Moreover, based on the epidemic situation this year, it will be expected that more provinces and cities will disclose investment plans in the future.All of this seems to create conditions for A shares to become a safe haven for global assets.However, the influence of certain factors is still worthy of attention.For example, the new crown epidemic has a global spread.Many countries have recently closed their cities, which has already explained the severity of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic.An important reason for the recent sharp decline in stock markets in Europe, America and Asia Pacific is the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, which will eventually affect the growth rate of the global economy.Moreover, in today’s growing economy, global economic growth will affect its exports.As far as the A-share market itself is concerned, the A-share market has been continuously opened to the outside world, and the linkage between the A-share market and the overseas market has intensified.Moreover, foreign countries have been able to move in and out of A shares very smoothly.The ups and downs of domestic and foreign markets will inevitably have an impact on foreign countries.Objectively speaking, the recent increase in A-share volatility is inseparable from the severe shocks in overseas markets.In addition, although the current epidemic situation has been well controlled, the epidemic situation has already had a significant impact on the performance of listed companies.The sustainability of listed companies, such as concepts, hot spots, etc., can only support a moment, intensify the rise or fall, and performance is the decisive factor.Of course, no matter whether A shares can become a safe haven for global assets, it is still necessary to guard against market risks.As a result, the increased volatility in the overseas market will have a more or less distorting effect on A shares.In particular, the recent sharp drop in crude oil prices has cast a shadow on the global economy, and it has virtually impaired investor confidence.At the same time, as far as the A-share market itself is concerned, after the “golden pit” at the beginning of the Year of the Rat, there are currently accumulated profitable chips in the market. Before the profitable chips are effectively released, their pressure on the marketWill be everywhere.The decline of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets on Monday did not exclude the internal factors of profitable chips to cash in on cash.Moreover, from a higher cycle point of view, although since last year, brokerages and other research institutions have shouted that the slow bull market has started.But fundamentally speaking, in the face of the current international and domestic economic environment, there may be no conditions for the bull market to start.From the perspective of investors, it is not important whether A shares become a “safe haven” for global assets. What is important is to actively seize market opportunities at home and abroad under the substitution of good risk prevention.Cao Zhongming (financial commentator) editor Chen Li proofreading Li Shihui